Mainland China’s Exports Hit Record High in H1: Hong Kong Maintains Strong Performance
Mainland China’s H1 Trade Shows Resilience
According to official data, Mainland China’s total goods trade in the first half of 2025 reached RMB 21.79 trillion, marking a year-on-year increase of 2.9%. Exports rose by 7.2% to RMB 13 trillion, while imports declined by 2.7% to RMB 8.79 trillion. Exports to the United States were down 7.7% year-on-year, reflecting continued pressure from U.S. trade restrictions. Nevertheless, bilateral trade began to recover as the temporary truce took effect. In June, Mainland China’s overall trade, exports, and imports all recorded positive annual growth. Notably, China–U.S. trade rebounded from under RMB 300 billion in May to over RMB 350 billion in June, narrowing the contraction considerably.
Hong Kong’s Export Sector Maintains Growth Momentum
Hong Kong’s export performance remained robust. For the first five months of 2025, total exports rose 12.6% year-on-year. According to the Census and Statistics Department, exports in May totaled HKD 434.1 billion, representing a 15.5% increase compared to the same month last year—exceeding market expectations. While total exports in May dipped slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, the pace of decline slowed notably from the 4.6% contraction in April, signaling a stabilizing trend. Hong Kong’s export growth, much like the mainland’s, was largely driven by stronger demand across Asian markets. Exports to Japan surged by approximately 96%, while those to Malaysia climbed by more than 55%. In contrast, shipments to the United Kingdom and the United States dropped by 52% and 18.4%, respectively likely due in part to front-loading of shipments ahead of potential U.S. tariff escalations on Chinese goods.
High-Tech Goods Lead Export Growth
By product category, most major export items saw year-on-year growth in May. Notable gains were recorded in “electrical machinery, appliances and appliances” (up HKD 27.4 billion, or 15.5%) and “office machines and automatic data processing machines” (up HKD 18.9 billion, or 44.9%).
Despite facing challenges including a global economic slowdown, geopolitical instability, and shifting trade policies, both Mainland China and Hong Kong demonstrated resilient export performance in the first half of the year. This underscores the region’s supply chain strength and adaptability. Government and companies are urged to closely monitor external developments, remain vigilant to rising geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainties, and adjust their strategies accordingly to ensure sustained export growth in the months ahead.
